[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices rebounded sharply again on July 16, with the overall US CPI annual rate for June rising to 2.7%

SMM Nickel News on July 16:

Macro News:

(1) The US's overall CPI annual rate for June rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The monthly rate was recorded at 0.3%, the highest since January, also in line with market expectations. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, falling short of the expected 3%, but slightly up from 2.8% MoM. The monthly rate was recorded at 0.2%, falling short of the market expectation of 0.3%.

(2) On Tuesday local time, US President Trump announced that tariff letters would soon be sent to some countries with relatively small economies, and that tariffs "slightly above 10%" were expected to be set for these countries.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM1# refined nickel price ranges from 120,800 to 123,400 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,100 yuan/mt, up 1,700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 1,900-2,100 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,000 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands is -100 to 300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2508 contract closed up 1.34% in the night session and maintained its strength in the daytime session, surging to a high of 121,600 yuan/mt before pulling back. As of the midday break, SHFE nickel was quoted at 120,390 yuan/mt, up 0.78%.

Macro factors dominate the direction, with a risk of the price center moving downward. If tariffs are implemented or the US Fed delays interest rate cuts, SHFE nickel prices may fall further. In the short term, nickel prices may continue to be in the doldrums, with a core range reference of 118,000-123,000 yuan/mt.